This week’s data low-sulfur coke price range is 3500-4100 yuan/ton, medium-sulfur coke price range is 2589-2791 yuan/ton, and high-sulfur coke price range is 1370-1730 yuan/ton.
This week, the theoretical processing profit of the delayed coking unit of Shandong Provincial Refinery was 392 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from 374 yuan/ton in the previous cycle. This week, the domestic delayed coking plant operating rate was 60.38%, a decrease of 1.28% from the previous cycle. In this week, Longzhong Information collected statistics on 13 ports. The total port inventory was 2.07 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons or 3.4% from last week.
Market outlook forecast
Supply forecast:
Domestic petroleum coke: Shandong Haihua’s 1 million tons/year delayed coking unit is scheduled to start in mid-August, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 1.2 million tons/year delayed coking unit is scheduled to be shut down on August 15 for maintenance, and Dongming Petrochemical’s 1.6 million tons/year delayed coking unit The plant is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance on August 13. It is expected that the domestic petcoke production in the next cycle may decrease slightly compared with this cycle.
Imported petroleum coke: The overall shipment of petroleum coke at the port is relatively good, and some imported coke has been put into storage one after another, and the inventory has risen slightly.
At present, domestic coal prices are high and the export of high-sulfur coke is decreasing, which is good for the shipment of fuel-grade petroleum coke. The supply of carbon-grade petroleum coke is tight, and the shipment of carbon-grade petroleum coke at the port is good. It is estimated that about 150,000 tons of imported coke will arrive at the port in the next cycle, and most of it will be fuel-grade petroleum coke. In the short term, it is difficult for the total port inventory to be adjusted significantly.
The overall forecast of the petroleum coke market:
Low-sulfur coke: When low-sulfur coke is stable this week, the coke is stable and the upward trend is slowing down. Low-sulfur coke is in short supply in the market and downstream demand is stable. Currently, low-sulfur petroleum coke is operating at a high level, downstream procurement is active, shipments are better, and inventories are low. It is expected to stabilize in the future. CNOOC’s low-sulfur coke shipments were good, and refinery inventories were low, and some of them rose within a narrow range. At present, coke prices are high, and the ability to receive goods in the aluminum carbon market is limited. In the short term, there is limited room for adjustment of petroleum coke prices, and high prices are often used to maintain stability.
Medium and high-sulfur coke: Good shipments from refineries, only a few coke prices have risen in response to the market. The medium-sulfur coke market was stable in production and sales, and some of the high-sulfur coke’s export sales decreased. The price of terminal electrolytic aluminum has risen to a high level again, and trading in the aluminum carbon market is stable. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will be stabilized in the next cycle, and the room for adjustment of petroleum coke prices is limited.
In terms of local refining, the price of refined petroleum coke has been largely stable this cycle, and the supply of refined petroleum coke is limited in the short-term. It is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke in the Mainland will remain high and fluctuate slightly in the next cycle.
Post time: Aug-17-2021