The Potential Risk of a “Carbon Resource War” Between the Production Capacity of Graphitized Petroleum Coke and Lithium-ion Battery Anode Materials—Yet This Conflict Can Be Dynamically Balanced Through Technological Iteration, Resource Integration, and Market Mechanism Adjustment. Specific analysis is as follows:
I. Core Logic of the “War”: Resource Scarcity and Explosive Demand Growth
Resource Side: Structural Tightness in Petroleum Coke Supply
- Decline in Refining Capacity: Under global “dual carbon” policies, refineries in Europe and the U.S. are accelerating the phase-out of outdated capacity (e.g., an 8% year-on-year decline in European refining capacity in 2024 and a 12% shutdown rate for U.S. shale oil refineries), leading to a sharp reduction in the supply of low-sulfur petroleum coke (a core raw material for lithium-ion battery anodes).
- Escalating Trade Barriers: Tightened U.S. export restrictions on graphite to China have forced Chinese anode manufacturers to shift toward domestic petroleum coke, further intensifying domestic demand pressure.
- Inventory Speculation: Traders have hoarded supplies to record levels, with domestic port inventories plunging from 2 million tons in 2023 to 800,000 tons, artificially creating a “false shortage.”
Demand Side: Explosive Growth in Lithium-ion Battery Anode Materials
- Market Expansion: Global demand for lithium-ion battery anode materials reached 2.2 million tons in 2024, requiring over 3 million tons of petroleum coke, yet actual supply stood at just 2.6 million tons, leaving a 13% gap.
- Technology Route Competition: Synthetic graphite (accounting for ~80% of the market) remains dominant but is highly reliant on petroleum coke (1.2–1.5 tons of coke needed per ton of synthetic graphite). While silicon-based anodes (with a theoretical capacity 10 times that of graphite) are gaining traction, commercialization remains 3–5 years away, leaving little near-term alternative to petroleum coke.
II. Real-World Manifestations: Soaring Costs and Industrial Chain Restructuring
Cost Pressure Transmission
- Raw Material Price Surge: By 2025, ex-factory prices for some low-sulfur petroleum coke approached RMB 6,000/ton, a 150% spike from early 2023. This drove the raw material cost for producing 1 ton of synthetic graphite from RMB 5,000 to RMB 9,000, pushing gross margins below 10%.
- Failed Price Pass-Through: Downstream lithium battery manufacturers demanded a 15% price cut for anodes, while anode producers faced prolonged accounts receivable cycles (extended from 90 to 180 days), heightening the risk of cash flow crises.
Industrial Chain Response Strategies
- Vertical Integration: Leading firms secured low-sulfur coke supplies by acquiring stakes in refineries and exploring coal-based needle coke (a 20% cost reduction versus petroleum coke).
- Accelerated Technological Substitution:
- Silicon-Based Anodes: Tesla’s mass production of silicon-carbon anodes for its 4680 batteries boosted energy density by 20%. If petroleum coke prices remain elevated, substitution could accelerate.
- Hard Carbon Breakthrough: GAC Aion developed biomass-derived hard carbon (coconut shell-based) for sodium-ion batteries, with raw material costs just one-third of petroleum coke.
- Overseas Expansion: Companies like BTR New Material Group and Shanshan Co., Ltd. established integrated anode material projects in Indonesia and Morocco to circumvent domestic resource constraints.
III. Future Trends: Dynamic Equilibrium and Long-Term Synergy
Short-Term Supply-Demand Relief
- New Capacity Rollout: Global refining capacity additions in the Middle East and India (scheduled for late 2025) will narrow the low-sulfur coke supply gap to 5%, potentially moderating prices.
- Demand Structure Optimization: Natural graphite’s market share rose from 15% to 25% (due to cost advantages), while silicon-based/hard carbon anodes’ combined share increased from 5% to 15%, reducing reliance on petroleum coke.
Long-Term Technological-Driven Synergy
- Silicon-Based Anode Commercialization: If CVD silicon-carbon anodes achieve scale-up, their theoretical capacity (4,200 mAh/g) could offset petroleum coke cost pressures, though challenges like low initial charge-discharge efficiency and process complexity remain.
- Green and Low-Carbon Development: Graphitization, a high-energy-consuming process, faces stringent energy consumption quotas. Adopting green electricity (solar/wind) or carbon credit trading will become critical for securing production quotas and enhancing product environmental value.
IV. Conclusion: The “War” as a Catalyst for Industrial Chain Upgrades
The “carbon resource war” between petroleum coke and lithium-ion battery anode materials appears to be a crisis of resource scarcity but is, in fact, a turning point for the industrial chain’s shift from extensive expansion to lean operations. Chinese firms are breaking through via vertical integration (refinery stakes, overseas布局), technological iteration (silicon-based anodes, hard carbon), and globalization. This “black gold storm” may spawn true global lithium battery material giants, with the answers hidden in the next technological breakthrough (e.g., mass-produced silicon-based anodes) or resource acquisition (e.g., overseas refinery acquisitions).
Post time: Jan-06-2026