The “throne” of graphitized petroleum coke is unlikely to be overthrown by graphene by-products or artificial graphite in the short term, but it may face challenges from technological iteration and industrial chain restructuring in the long run. The following analysis is conducted from three dimensions: material properties, application scenarios, and industrial chain dynamics.
I. The Core Position of Graphitized Petroleum Coke: Dual Barriers of Cost and Process
Irreplaceable Raw Material Attributes
Graphitized petroleum coke is the mainstream raw material for lithium-ion battery anode materials, with advantages including:
- Cost Efficiency: Producing 1 ton of artificial graphite requires 1.2–1.5 tons of petroleum coke. Based on a low-sulfur petroleum coke price of 6,000 yuan/ton in 2025, raw material costs account for 36%–45% of the total production cost of artificial graphite (approximately 25,000 yuan/ton). Switching to alternative materials would significantly increase costs.
- Process Maturity: After graphitization treatment at 2,500–3,000°C, petroleum coke forms an ordered graphite crystal structure, providing excellent electrical conductivity and thermal stability—key to the current performance of artificial graphite.
Rigid Supply Chain Constraints
- Production Limitations: In 2025, China’s total petroleum coke production is approximately 29 million tons, with low-sulfur coke (sulfur content <3%) accounting for about 30% (approximately 8.7 million tons). This must meet demand from aluminum pre-baked anodes, steel graphite electrodes, and anode materials, leaving limited supply flexibility.
- Export Controls: In 2025, China imposed export restrictions on artificial graphite anode materials and related equipment, prompting overseas battery manufacturers to accelerate localized supply chain development, further driving up demand for low-sulfur petroleum coke.
II. Challengers: Limitations of Graphene By-Products and Natural Graphite
Graphene By-Products: Technological Immaturity and Cost Barriers
- Limited Production: By-products from graphene synthesis (e.g., graphene nanoribbons, quantum dots) remain in laboratory or small-scale applications, unable to achieve large-scale substitution for petroleum coke.
- Cost Disadvantages: For example, Rice University’s “flash” hydrogen production technology requires selling graphene by-products at 5% of market prices to offset hydrogen production costs, indicating insufficient economic viability for industrial applications.
Natural Graphite: Balancing Performance and Cost
- Performance Shortcomings: Although natural graphite costs 30% less than artificial graphite, its well-developed crystal structure causes anisotropy, resulting in inferior cycle life and rate capability compared to artificial graphite. For instance, natural graphite typically achieves fewer than 1,500 cycles, while artificial graphite exceeds 2,000 cycles.
- Technological Breakthroughs: Surface coating modifications (e.g., nano-silicon carbide layers) can extend natural graphite’s cycle life beyond 2,000 cycles, but the additional processing increases costs, eroding its price advantage.
III. Long-Term Variables: Technological Iteration and Industrial Chain Restructuring
Impact of Next-Generation Anode Technologies
- Silicon-Based Anodes: With a theoretical capacity of 4,200 mAh/g (10 times that of graphite), silicon-based anodes can offset petroleum coke cost pressures. Their market share rose from 5% to 15% in 2025, but volume expansion (>300%) during cycling remains a critical challenge for cycle life degradation.
- Hard Carbon Materials: GAC Aion’s biomass-derived hard carbon (coconut shell-based) suits sodium-ion batteries, with raw material costs one-third those of petroleum coke. However, its lower energy density (~300 mAh/g vs. graphite’s 372 mAh/g) limits short-term substitution potential.
Vertical Integration and Resource Competition in the Industrial Chain
- Upstream Lock-In: Leading domestic anode manufacturers secure low-sulfur coke supplies by acquiring stakes in refineries or coal resources. For example, CATL reduced reliance on petroleum coke by adopting continuous graphitization processes to shorten production cycles.
- International Alliances: Overseas battery giants (e.g., Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution) formed strategic partnerships with Chinese petrochemical firms, exchanging investments for resource access to secure supplies for the next decade.
Conclusion: Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Vigilance Against Substitution
The dominance of graphitized petroleum coke remains secure in the short term, underpinned by cost advantages, process maturity, and supply chain rigidity. However, in the long run, the commercialization of next-generation technologies like silicon-based anodes and hard carbon, coupled with resource competition from vertical integration, may gradually erode its monopoly. Industry stakeholders should prioritize:
- Technological Iteration: Accelerating performance improvements and cost reductions for silicon-based anodes, hard carbon, and other alternatives.
- Resource Strategy: Securing supply chains through refinery partnerships or alternative raw materials (e.g., biomass coke).
- Policy Adaptation: Navigating global supply chain restructuring under escalating export controls by expanding overseas localized production capacity.
Post time: Jan-09-2026