Analysis of Price Trends and Core Influencing Factors of Graphitized Petroleum Coke (From the Perspective of 2025)
I. Price Trends: Short-term Surge Followed by Differentiation, Long-term Supported by Supply-Demand Gap
1. Price Performance in 2025
- Low-sulfur coke leads the rally: Driven by a surge in demand for anode materials in new energy vehicles, prices of low-sulfur coke rose rapidly in early 2025. For instance, the price of low-sulfur coke from Fushun Petrochemical increased from 3,000 yuan/ton in December 2024 to 3,500 yuan/ton in January 2025, with some auction prices exceeding 4,200 yuan/ton.
- Mid-to-high sulfur coke follows suit: Mid-sulfur coke was priced between 2,400 and 2,900 yuan/ton, while high-sulfur coke ranged from 1,300 to 1,800 yuan/ton. Although their increases were lower than that of low-sulfur coke, they exhibited an overall upward trend.
- Supported by supply-demand gap: A supply-demand gap of 870,000 tons in 2025 is expected to drive the annual average price to the range of 3,000–4,000 yuan/ton.
2. Outlook for 2026
- Moderate price increase: The supply-demand gap is projected to narrow to 660,000 tons, but the share of new energy demand is expected to rise to 21%, pushing the annual average price to the range of 3,200–4,200 yuan/ton, with low-sulfur coke potentially surpassing 4,000 yuan/ton.
- Structural differentiation: High-sulfur coke prices will remain low due to ample supply, fluctuating within the range of 1,500–2,000 yuan/ton.
II. Core Influencing Factors: A Triangular Interplay of Demand, Supply, and Policy
1. Demand Side: Structural Growth Driven by the New Energy Revolution
- Lithium-ion battery anode materials: In 2024, anode material demand accounted for 8% of total petroleum coke consumption, and this share is projected to rise to 11% by 2026. New capacity additions in the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors exceeding 5.96 million tons/year will directly boost demand for low-sulfur coke.
- Weakness in traditional sectors: Demand in carbon and fuel sectors remains sluggish, with constrained purchasing power due to poor profitability. For example, carbon enterprises reduced procurement amid weak aluminum industry demand (with aluminum prices correcting in 2025), while the fuel sector substituted high-sulfur fuel coke with cheaper coal (averaging approximately 500 yuan/ton in 2025).
2. Supply Side: Limited Capacity Growth and Cost Pressures
- Slow domestic capacity expansion: No new delayed coking units are planned for 2025, and higher import tariffs on fuel oil (effective January 1, 2025) have reduced operating rates at independent refineries, with Shandong-based refiners experiencing the steepest declines, constraining domestic output.
- Inadequate overseas supply: Low-sulfur coke production is limited in Europe and the United States due to high sulfur content in crude oil, leading to persistent high import dependency.
3. Policy Side: Dual Constraints from Environmental and Trade Policies
- Environmental production restrictions: Demand for low-sulfur petroleum coke (with sulfur content <0.5%) has surged due to its compliance with environmental standards, while high-carbon industries such as electrolytic aluminum have faced production cuts under policy constraints, indirectly affecting petroleum coke demand.
- Trade frictions: While sluggish international market demand or exchange rate fluctuations may influence domestic prices, the 2025 fuel oil tariff adjustment has directly raised costs for independent refiners, becoming a key driver of supply contraction.
4. Cost Side: Transmission of Crude Oil Price Fluctuations
- Weakening cost support: The average Brent crude oil price is expected to be 67/barrelin2025andmayfallto51/barrel in 2026 (EIA forecast), which will suppress petroleum coke price increases.
- Refinery profit dynamics: When crude oil prices are high, refiners increase light oil production via delayed coking, boosting petroleum coke supply. Conversely, petroleum coke becomes a profit supplement, supporting prices.
III. Future Risks and Opportunities
1. Downside Risks
- Unexpected decline in international oil prices: If the average Brent crude oil price falls below $50/barrel, petroleum coke prices may decline.
- Weaker-than-expected downstream demand: Overcapacity in lithium-ion battery anode materials or超预期 (unexpectedly severe) production cuts in electrolytic aluminum could collapse demand.
2. Upside Risks
- Further production cuts at independent refineries: If operating rates at Shandong-based independent refineries fall below 50%, supply contraction could push prices higher.
- Stronger-than-expected new energy demand: If the share of lithium-ion battery anode materials rises to 15%, prices for high-end petroleum coke could exceed 4,500 yuan/ton.
IV. Conclusion: Structural Opportunities Amid High Volatility
Graphitized petroleum coke prices are expected to remain highly volatile over the next two years, with low-sulfur coke emerging as the core growth driver due to new energy demand, while mid-to-high sulfur coke will see limited increases due to headwinds in traditional sectors. Investors should closely monitor:
- Developments in the new energy sector (e.g., electric vehicle sales, energy storage project rollouts);
- Domestic refinery operating rates (especially policy changes affecting independent refiners);
- Fluctuations in international oil prices (cost transmission effects);
- Environmental policy enforcement intensity (impacting both supply and demand).
Against the backdrop of China’s “dual carbon” goals and energy transition, the graphitized petroleum coke market is undergoing a structural transformation from traditional fuel to new energy materials, with the scarcity of low-sulfur coke providing long-term price resilience.
Post time: Nov-14-2025