What are the main factors influencing the price fluctuations of graphitized petroleum coke in the market?

Main Factors Influencing Price Fluctuations in the Graphitized Petroleum Coke Market

I. Demand Side: Expansion of Downstream Industries and Emergence of New Sectors

  1. Demand from the Electrolytic Aluminum and Graphite Electrode Industries
    Graphitized petroleum coke serves as a core raw material for pre-baked anodes in the electrolytic aluminum industry and a key material in graphite electrode manufacturing. Fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum capacity directly impact demand:

    • 2017–2018: Rising electric arc furnace steel production drove a surge in graphite electrode demand, with petroleum coke prices skyrocketing from RMB 1,200/ton to over RMB 7,000/ton.
    • 2024: Carbon emission restrictions forced some electrolytic aluminum enterprises to cut production, reducing petroleum coke demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
    • Battery energy storage sector: Growing demand for graphite electrodes further pushed up petroleum coke prices.
  2. Explosive Growth in Lithium Battery Anode Material Demand
    • 2024: Global demand for lithium battery anode materials reached 2.2 million tons, requiring over 3 million tons of petroleum coke, but actual supply stood at only 2.6 million tons, creating a 13% supply gap.
    • 2025: China’s anode material enterprises planned over 5 million tons of capacity (far exceeding the projected global demand of 3.5 million tons), intensifying competition for raw materials and driving low-sulfur petroleum coke prices close to RMB 6,000/ton, a 150% surge from early 2023.
  3. Surge in Photovoltaic Industry Demand
    • 2024: Global demand for photovoltaic-grade petroleum coke surged by 35%, with silicon material producers (e.g., Tongwei, GCL) competing for low-sulfur coke resources, pushing prices higher.

II. Supply Side: Capacity Contraction and Supply Chain Disruptions

  1. Contraction in Oil Refining Capacity
    • Global “Dual Carbon” Policies: Accelerated phase-out of outdated refining capacity in Europe and the U.S. led to an 8% year-on-year decline in European refining capacity and a 12% shutdown rate among U.S. shale oil refiners in 2024, sharply reducing low-sulfur petroleum coke supply.
    • Chinese refinery shutdowns: In February 2025, Shandong’s independent refineries (Guangrao, Rizhao, Zibo) announced indefinite maintenance shutdowns, further tightening market supply.
  2. Inventory Speculation and Trader Hoarding
    • Trader hoarding: In 2024, traders amassed record-high inventories, reducing domestic port stocks from 2 million tons in 2023 to 800,000 tons, artificially creating a “false shortage.”
    • Import dependency: China imported high-sulfur coke from Russia and Venezuela, using desulfurization processes to alleviate supply pressures, though costs rose by 5%.
  3. Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Barriers
    • U.S. export restrictions on graphite to China: Forced Chinese anode material enterprises to rely on domestic petroleum coke, intensifying internal demand pressures.
    • Crude oil price transmission: In 2024, international oil prices breached USD 120/barrel, squeezing refining margins and prompting refiners to cut production, exacerbating petroleum coke shortages.

III. Policies and Environmental Regulations: Rising Costs and Technological Substitution

  1. Stricter Environmental Policies
    • Surge in low-sulfur coke demand: Low-sulfur petroleum coke (sulfur content <0.5%) saw significantly higher demand than high-sulfur coke due to compliance with environmental standards, widening the price gap.
    • Higher production costs: Increased environmental compliance costs for petroleum coke producers drove prices upward.
  2. Threat of Technological Substitution
    • Rise of silicon-based anodes: Tesla’s mass production of 4680 batteries with silicon-carbon anodes improved energy density by 20%. Prolonged high petroleum coke prices could accelerate this substitution trend.
    • Natural graphite resurgence: Surface-modified natural graphite (e.g., nano-silicon carbide coatings) achieved cycle lives exceeding 2,000 cycles at 30% lower costs than synthetic graphite, partially replacing petroleum coke demand.

IV. Market Sentiment and Capital Speculation

  1. Breakdown in Price Transmission Mechanisms
    • Downstream price pressure: Leading Chinese lithium battery enterprises demanded 15% price cuts for anode materials, slashing graphitized petroleum coke producers’ gross margins from 35% to 8%.
    • Extended payment terms: Accounts receivable cycles lengthened from 90 to 180 days, heightening cash flow risks for small and medium-sized enterprises.
  2. Capacity Bubbles and Industry Consolidation
    • Market concentration: The CR5 (top five enterprises) saw market share rise from 70% to 85%, with tail-end firms exiting en masse.
    • Global competition: Japanese and South Korean firms (e.g., POSCO Chemical) accelerated acquisitions of Chinese second-tier producers to capture remaining market share.

V. Future Outlook: Supply-Demand Balance and Price Inflection Points

  1. Downward Pressures
    • 2H 2025: New refining capacity in the Middle East and India is expected to narrow the low-sulfur coke supply gap to 5%.
  2. Upside Risks
    • Crude oil above USD 150/barrel: Prolonged low refinery utilization rates could drive petroleum coke prices to RMB 8,000/ton.
  3. Technological Roadmap Shifts
    • Synthetic graphite: Market share to decline from 80% to 60%, remaining the dominant route.
    • Natural graphite: Share to rise from 15% to 25%, leveraging cost advantages.
    • Silicon-based/hard carbon: Share to increase from 5% to 15%, unlocking a second growth phase.
Post time: Sep-16-2025