1. Price data
According to data from the business agency’s bulk list, the price of petcoke at local refineries has risen sharply this week. The average price in Shandong’s market on September 26 was 3371.00 yuan/ton, compared with the average price of petro coke on September 20, which was 3,217.25 yuan/ton. Increased 4.78%.
The Petroleum Coke Commodity Index on September 26 was 262.19, the same as yesterday, setting a new historical high in the cycle, an increase of 291.97% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to present)
2. Analysis of influencing factors
The refinery shipped well this week, the supply of petroleum coke was reduced, the inventory of the refinery was low, the downstream demand was good, the transaction was active, and the price of local refined petroleum coke continued to rise.
Upstream: International oil prices continue to rise. The recent increase in oil prices is mainly due to the slow recovery of oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf region. The capacity utilization rate of US East Coast refineries has increased to 93%, the highest since May. The continued decline in US crude oil inventories has contributed to the formation of oil prices. Strong support.
Downstream: The price of upstream petroleum coke continues to rise, and the price of calcined coke has risen; the silicon metal market has risen sharply; the price of downstream electrolytic aluminum has risen. As of September 26, the price was 22930.00 yuan/ton.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 38th week of 2021 (9.20-9.24), there are 10 commodities in the energy sector that have risen month-on-month, of which 3 commodities have increased by more than 5%. 18.8% of the number of monitored commodities; the top 3 commodities with an increase were methanol (10.32%), dimethyl ether (8.84%), and thermal coal (8.35%). There were 5 products that fell from the previous month. The top 3 products were MTBE (-3.31%), gasoline (-2.73%), and diesel (-1.43%). The average increase and decrease this week was 2.19%.
Petroleum coke analysts believe that: the current refinery petroleum coke inventory is low, low- and medium-sulfur coke resources are tight, downstream demand is good, refineries are actively shipping, downstream electrolytic aluminum prices rise, and calcined coke prices rise. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may be adjusted to a high level in the near future.
Post time: Sep-30-2021