Graphitized petroleum coke faces certain geopolitical and resource monopoly risks, with the sources of these risks analyzable from four dimensions: resource distribution, geopolitical landscape changes, industrial chain control, and policy and trade barriers.
I. Uneven Resource Distribution Leading to Supply Dependence on Specific Regions
As a by-product of crude oil processing, the production volume of petroleum coke is directly related to crude oil processing capacity. The uneven global distribution of crude oil resources results in a high dependence of petroleum coke supply on crude oil-producing regions and processing hubs. For example:
- Concentrated Production of Petroleum Coke in China: From January to November 2024, China’s petroleum coke production was mainly concentrated in East China, South China, and Northeast China, accounting for over 80% of the total, with East China contributing more than 55%. This regional concentration makes local supply fluctuations likely to impact the national market.
- High Import Dependence: China’s self-produced petroleum coke cannot fully meet domestic demand, with a portion of the production-consumption gap supplemented by imports. From January to November 2024, although China’s petroleum coke imports decreased by 15.22% year-on-year, the external dependence rate remained above 25%, with high-sulfur petroleum coke accounting for over 70% of imports in 2023. Import sources include the United States, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and others. Geopolitical conflicts or trade policy changes in these countries may directly disrupt supply stability.
II. Geopolitical Landscape Changes Exacerbating Supply Risks
Changes in the global energy geopolitical landscape pose potential threats to the petroleum coke supply chain:
- Intensified Resource Competition: As an energy and chemical raw material, the supply of petroleum coke may be affected by resource competition. For instance, political instability in the Middle East and tense relations between Russia and Western countries may lead to crude oil supply disruptions or price fluctuations, thereby impacting petroleum coke production.
- Blocked Transportation Routes: Geopolitical conflicts may obstruct petroleum coke transportation routes, increasing transportation costs and time, and even causing supply interruptions. For example, rising security risks in the Red Sea shipping lane may affect the efficiency of Middle Eastern petroleum coke exports to China.
III. Monopoly Risks in Key Links of the Industrial Chain
Certain links or technologies in the petroleum coke industrial chain may be controlled by a few enterprises or countries, forming a monopoly situation:
- Monopoly in Upstream Crude Oil Supply: The global crude oil market is dominated by a few oil-producing countries, with organizations like OPEC influencing oil prices through production policies, thereby indirectly controlling petroleum coke costs. For example, OPEC production cuts may lead to crude oil price increases, driving up petroleum coke production costs.
- Technical Barriers in Midstream Processing: Petroleum coke processing technologies, such as delayed coking and calcination, have certain barriers, and enterprises mastering core technologies may gain market advantages. For instance, although China leads in graphitization technology, it still relies on imports for high-end needle coke and other key raw materials, posing a technical monopoly risk.
- Concentrated Downstream Application Market: Petroleum coke consumption is mainly concentrated in pre-baked anodes and fuel, accounting for 77% in the first half of 2024. The electrolytic aluminum industry, as the primary user of pre-baked anodes, may impact petroleum coke demand due to its production capacity limits (e.g., China’s 45 million-ton red line), forming a demand-side monopoly.
IV. Policy and Trade Barriers Restricting Market Liquidity
Policies and trade barriers in various countries may exacerbate market segmentation and monopoly in the petroleum coke market:
- Environmental Policy Restrictions: China’s “2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan” stipulates that, except for existing self-provided units in petrochemical enterprises, high-sulfur petroleum coke shall not be used as fuel. This policy restricts the use of high-sulfur petroleum coke in the fuel sector, with some demand shifting to low-sulfur petroleum coke, potentially triggering a monopoly in the low-sulfur petroleum coke market.
- Export Controls and Trade Wars: Major exporting countries may restrict petroleum coke supply through export controls or raise tariffs through trade wars, affecting global market liquidity. For example, U.S. tariffs on China may drive up the cost of China’s imported petroleum coke, weakening its international competitiveness.
- Resource Export Restrictions: Resource-rich countries may limit exports to protect their domestic industries, leading to global supply tensions. For instance, Indonesia’s restrictions on nickel ore exports, although not directly involving petroleum coke, reflect the trend of resource-exporting countries using policy tools to control markets, potentially triggering similar risks for other resources like petroleum coke.
Post time: Nov-24-2025