Silicon-carbon anodes are launching a comprehensive challenge to graphite anodes (including graphitized petroleum coke) with technological breakthroughs and cost reductions. However, the “throne” of graphite anodes remains stable in the short term, while facing the risk of being replaced in the long run. The following analysis is conducted from three dimensions: technology, cost, and market application.
I. Technology Dimension: The “Performance Leap” of Silicon-Carbon Anodes vs. the “Limiting Bottleneck” of Graphite Anodes
Breakthrough Advantages of Silicon-Carbon Anodes
- Energy Density Dominance: The theoretical specific capacity of silicon (4200mAh/g) is more than ten times that of graphite (372mAh/g). Silicon-carbon anodes prepared via CVD (Chemical Vapor Deposition) exhibit a 50% increase in energy density compared to traditional graphite, with cycle lives exceeding 1000 cycles (e.g., Shanghai Xiba’s mesoporous carbon skeleton technology reduces electrode swelling rate to 5%).
- Mitigation of Volume Expansion Issues: Nanoscale silicon particles combined with porous carbon skeletons form a “breathing maze” structure, effectively buffering silicon expansion stress. For instance, Tesla’s 4680 battery, utilizing CVD silicon-carbon anodes, achieves over 2500 cycles and enables 8-minute fast charging.
- Enhanced Process Compatibility: Silicon-carbon anodes can be integrated with semi-solid electrolytes, further improving safety and energy density. Beijing Lier’s silicon-carbon anodes, paired with sulfide solid electrolytes, achieve energy densities exceeding 500Wh/kg and cycle lives of 2000 cycles.
“Ceiling Effect” of Graphite Anodes
- Performance Limitations: The practical specific capacity of graphite anodes has nearly reached its theoretical maximum (360mAh/g), with issues such as poor electrolyte compatibility and capacity fading due to SEI (Solid Electrolyte Interphase) film formation during initial charge/discharge cycles.
- Limited Modification Potential: Although modifications using soft carbon, hard carbon, or carbon nanotubes can be made, they cannot surpass the theoretical capacity advantages of silicon-based materials. For example, hard carbon, while offering higher specific capacity than graphite, lacks a stable charge-discharge platform and experiences rapid capacity decay.
II. Cost Dimension: The “Cost Reduction Curve” of Silicon-Carbon Anodes vs. the “Cost Advantage” of Graphite Anodes
Cost Reductions in Silicon-Carbon Anodes
- Silane Gas Self-Sufficiency: Silane gas (SiH₄), a core raw material for silicon-carbon anodes, previously relied on imports (priced at up to 2 million yuan/ton). Since 2023, leading companies have achieved domestic production through self-built production lines, reducing costs to 750,000 yuan/ton. This has driven the price of silicon-carbon anodes from 1.5 million yuan/ton to 750,000 yuan/ton, approaching 1.5 times the cost of graphite anodes (around 500,000 yuan/ton).
- Scalability of CVD Processes: Domestic CVD equipment prices have dropped to one-third of imported counterparts, with single-machine capacity increasing threefold. For example, a leading company’s CVD production line capacity surged from 100 tons/year to 5000 tons/year, reducing unit costs by 40%.
- Economic Viability: If silicon-carbon anode prices fall to 1.5 times those of graphite, the cost increase for an A00-class electric vehicle equipped with a 30kWh battery would be approximately 2000 yuan, while delivering a 15% increase in range, offering significant cost-effectiveness.
“Cost Moat” of Graphite Anodes
- Low Raw Material Costs: Graphite anode raw materials, such as petroleum coke and needle coke, exhibit minimal price volatility (e.g., graphitized petroleum coke priced at 1620-3000 yuan/ton).
- Mature Production Processes: The production process for graphite anodes (crushing, granulation, classification, high-temperature graphitization) is highly standardized, enabling cost control under mass production.
- Short-Term Cost Advantage: In energy storage applications (sensitive to cycle life but less demanding on energy density) and low-end electric vehicle markets, graphite anodes retain a cost advantage.
III. Market Application Dimension: The “Market Penetration” of Silicon-Carbon Anodes vs. the “Existing Market” of Graphite Anodes
“High-Growth Track” of Silicon-Carbon Anodes
- Power Batteries: Leading companies like CATL and Tesla have pioneered mass production of silicon-carbon anode batteries. Global demand for silicon-carbon anodes is projected to reach 60,000-70,000 tons by 2026, corresponding to a market size of 18-21 billion yuan.
- Consumer Electronics: Silicon-carbon anodes have penetrated over 25% of high-end smartphones (e.g., Honor Magic5 Pro), increasing battery capacity by 15% while adding only 0.1mm in thickness.
- Solid-State Batteries: Silicon-carbon anodes, combined with solid electrolytes, represent a long-term technological direction. For example, Beijing Lier’s silicon-carbon anodes, paired with sulfide solid electrolytes, achieve energy densities exceeding 500Wh/kg.
“Existing Market Defense” of Graphite Anodes
- Market Share Dominance: Graphite anodes currently account for over 95% of the lithium-ion battery anode material market (with artificial graphite comprising 80%), making complete replacement unlikely in the short term.
- Niche Market Resilience: In energy storage (e.g., distributed storage) and low-end electric vehicle markets, graphite anodes maintain a foothold due to cost advantages and cycle lives exceeding 6000 cycles.
IV. Future Outlook: How Long Can Graphite Anodes Retain Their “Throne”?
- Short Term (1-3 Years): Graphite anodes will remain dominant, but silicon-carbon anodes will rapidly increase penetration in power batteries and high-end consumer electronics.
- Medium Term (3-5 Years): If silicon-carbon anode costs align with graphite anodes (expected by 2026), their energy density and fast-charging advantages will drive large-scale replacement in energy storage and low-end electric vehicle markets.
- Long Term (5+ Years): Silicon-carbon anodes, combined with solid electrolytes, could become the core of next-generation battery technologies, potentially overthrowing graphite anodes’ dominance.
Post time: Dec-22-2025