In the field of high-end carbon materials, calcined petroleum coke is not positioned as a competitor on equal footing with synthetic graphite and natural graphite, but rather serves as the “cornerstone” of the synthetic graphite supply chain. The relationship among the three is essentially a route competition between synthetic graphite anodes and natural graphite anodes, with the supply of calcined petroleum coke directly influencing the competitiveness of the synthetic graphite route. Currently, this dynamic is evolving from “synthetic graphite dominance” toward a pattern of “layered competition and multi-route coexistence.”
Core Relationship Clarification: Not Peers, but “Skeleton” and “Muscle”
To understand the relationship among the three, their distinct roles must first be clarified:
Calcined petroleum coke is the “skeleton” of synthetic graphite: It is the core raw material for producing synthetic graphite. Ordinary petroleum coke or needle coke undergoes graphitization at temperatures above 2800°C to become synthetic graphite. Its cost accounts for over 60% of synthetic graphite production, so the price and supply of petroleum coke directly determine the cost and output of synthetic graphite.
Natural graphite is an independent “competitor”: It comes directly from mining operations and has no direct relationship with petroleum coke. The real competition occurs between synthetic graphite anodes (derived from petroleum coke) and natural graphite anodes (processed directly from mined ore).
⚔️ Evolution of Competition: From “Single Dominance” to “Layered Rivalry”
The evolution has been driven by three major factors:
1. 2023–2025: Soaring Petroleum Coke Costs Squeeze Synthetic Graphite, Natural Graphite Strikes Back
Synthetic graphite choked by costs: From 2023 to early 2025, low-sulfur petroleum coke prices surged by approximately 150%, approaching RMB 6,000/ton. Producing 1 ton of synthetic graphite requires 1.2–1.5 tons of petroleum coke. Coupled with high graphitization processing fees, industry gross margins plummeted from 35% to 8%.
Natural graphite seizes the opportunity to gain share: Under cost pressure, natural graphite’s cost advantage became prominent. With technological improvements, its cycle life surpassed 2,000 cycles, and its cost was roughly 30% lower than synthetic graphite. This enhanced natural graphite’s competitiveness in scenarios like fast-charging, boosting its market share from about 15% to approximately 25%.
2. Current Landscape: Not “Replacement,” but “Layering”
The evolution has not resulted in a single substitution, but rather a layered pattern where “each holds its own turf”:
Synthetic graphite: With its high energy density and long cycle life, it remains dominant in long-range electric vehicles. Leading players are reducing costs and improving efficiency by locking in upstream petroleum coke resources and building in-house graphitization capacity. Though its market share has slipped from its peak, it still holds around 60%.
Natural graphite: Leveraging low cost, excellent fast-charging performance, and high safety, it has carved out a niche in urban commuting fast-charging and certain energy storage applications.
Third-generation routes “outflanking”: Silicon-based anodes and hard carbon anodes are beginning to be commercialized. Silicon-based anodes theoretically offer ten times the capacity of graphite and are rapidly penetrating high-end applications such as 4680 batteries, vying for future high ground.
3. Strategic Transformation of Calcined Petroleum Coke Itself
Calcined petroleum coke is also evolving from a “refining byproduct” into a critical strategic raw material linking petrochemicals and advanced manufacturing:
Polarized demand: High-end needle coke, used in lithium-ion battery anodes and specialty graphite, is irreplaceable and follows a high-value, scarce-material route; ordinary petroleum coke, meanwhile, faces competition from hard carbon in the mid-to-low-end market.
Policy ban on use as fuel: The Chinese government has explicitly stipulated that, except for captive power plants, petroleum coke is strictly prohibited from being used as fuel. This essentially locks petroleum coke’s use away from “burning” and firmly into “materialization.”
Future Outlook: A Continuously Stratifying Process Driven by Resources and Costs
Looking ahead, the relationship among the three will remain a dynamic, continuously adjusting process:
Synthetic graphite’s “defensive consolidation” and “intensifying competition”: It will remain the mainstream for the long term, but its development will be severely constrained by the availability and cost of petroleum coke resources. The industry is phasing out small and mid-sized players, moving toward a resource-first, oligopolistic structure.
Natural graphite’s “limited penetration”: It will continue to penetrate specific segments where cost and fast-charging advantages are clear, but its performance ceiling will prevent it from fully replacing synthetic graphite.
Next-generation materials’ “incremental competition”: Silicon-based, hard carbon, and other materials will primarily compete with synthetic and natural graphite in new markets (such as next-generation batteries and sodium-ion batteries), rather than engaging in disruptive substitution in the existing market.
> In summary, the essence of this competition is: petroleum coke supply has put a stranglehold on synthetic graphite, giving natural graphite an opportunity to breathe and counterattack; simultaneously, new materials such as silicon-based anodes have opened up new battlegrounds on a higher dimension. The final outcome is not one material replacing another, but rather the entire anode materials market moving toward a more refined layering, driven by both performance and cost.
Post time: Jul-07-2026