Since the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of terminal electric arc furnace steelmaking has been rising, and the demand of graphite electrode market has increased slightly. However, from the perspective of the overall market trading situation, combined with the analysis of upstream and downstream factors, it still takes some time for the graphite electrode market to recover.
In the first half of February, the market price of graphite electrode still has a downward performance, the range of 500 yuan/ton. In the first half of the month, the average price of ultra-high 600mm is 25250 yuan/ton, the average price of high power 500mm is 21,250 yuan/ton, and the average price of ordinary power 500mm is 18,750 yuan/ton. Graphite electrode market supply and demand two weak situation dominated, electrode manufacturers to ship after the holiday, reduce inventory pressure, price concessions.
Since February, the cost of ultra-high power graphite electrode has fallen slightly, mainly because the market price of needle coke has fallen by 200 yuan/ton, the price range of oil coke is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton, and the price range of coal coke is 10,500-12,000 yuan/ton. The reduction of raw material price makes the production profit of ultra-high power graphite electrode from 149 yuan/ton upside down in January to 102 yuan/ton meager profit, which is not enough to stimulate the electrode manufacturers to increase the production load on a large scale, and the overall operating rate of graphite electrode maintained at a low level of 26.5% in January to February.
Around the Spring Festival, the steel market enters the state of suspension, the downstream has a holiday to stop work, the overall demand of the material end obviously shrink, coupled with the reduction of scrap steel resources, the independent electric furnace plant basically in accordance with the plan to stop maintenance, electric arc furnace steelmaking operation rate drops to the single digits of 5.6%-7.8%, the demand for graphite electrode is weak. In the week of February 10, electric arc furnace steel mills chose to resume operation or unsaturated production one after another, and the operating rate of electric arc furnace rose to 31.31%. However, the current terminal operating level is still below the average, which cannot promote the substantial recovery of graphite electrode demand.
In 2023, under the background of “two-carbon” goal, the proportion of short-process steel making in electric furnace will still have room to rise. The macroeconomic environment at home and abroad will be improved, iron and steel is an important basic industry of the national economy, the country has a clear positioning of the role of infrastructure construction in driving and supporting the economy, the relevant meeting pointed out that “accelerate the implementation of the” 14th Five-Year Plan “major projects, strengthen the infrastructure connectivity between regions”, although the real estate growth is difficult to return to the past high-speed growth era, But a “bottoming out” in 2023 May be foreseeable. And the graphite electrode market light operation in the first quarter, the overall market will wait and see the recovery of the downstream steel industry in the second and third quarters, looking forward to the adjustment of the policy and after the epidemic, the economic rebirth, will bring new good news to the graphite electrode market.
Post time: Feb-17-2023